MOSCOW, Feb 4 (Reuters) — The landmark nuclear arms control treaty between Russia and the United States is set to expire within hours, raising concerns over the possibility of a new arms race involving China.
The treaty, known as New START, was part of a series of agreements negotiated since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, aimed at preventing a catastrophic nuclear conflict. Its impending expiration marks the first time in over half a century that the two nuclear giants will operate without formal limits on their arsenals.
Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov stated that President Vladimir Putin discussed the issue in a video call with Chinese President Xi Jinping, assuring that Moscow would proceed “carefully and responsibly.” Ushakov added that Putin expressed openness to negotiations to maintain strategic stability.
There was some confusion over the exact timing of the treaty’s expiration, but experts suggest it will happen around 2300 GMT on Wednesday — midnight in Prague, where the treaty was signed in 2010. As the deadline nears, Pope Leo XVI issued an urgent plea for both sides to preserve the treaty’s limits, emphasizing its importance for global security.
“If this instrument lapses, it risks unleashing a new arms race,” warned Matt Korda, associate director at the Federation of American Scientists. He explained that without the treaty, both Russia and the U.S. could potentially double their deployed nuclear arsenals by adding hundreds of warheads, significantly heightening global tensions.
Korda also noted that the expiration does not necessarily mean an inevitable arms race, citing the high costs associated with nuclear weapons as a deterrent. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump has indicated he might seek a better agreement if the treaty ends, though Moscow reports no response from Washington to Putin’s proposal to extend the treaty beyond its expiration.
Despite reductions from a peak of over 70,000 nuclear warheads in 1986 to around 12,000 today, both nations continue to upgrade their arsenals, and China has significantly expanded its nuclear capabilities over the past decade.
Supporters of arms control warn that the loss of the treaty could undermine trust, verification, and transparency in nuclear disarmament efforts. Critics, however, argue that such treaties can hinder nuclear modernization and provide opportunities for cheating.
Last year, Trump questioned the need for new treaties, emphasizing that the U.S. and Russia already possess enough nuclear firepower to destroy the world multiple times, and called for China to be included in future arms control discussions.
As the world watches, experts warn that the expiry of New START could mark a pivotal moment in nuclear diplomacy, with potential consequences for global security and stability.
Reporting by Guy Faulconbridge, London; Mark Trevelyan, Moscow; Joshua McElwee, Vatican. Editing by Alex Richardson and Peter Graff.
