Gold prices experienced a decline on Tuesday, February 10, driven by profit-taking as the US dollar strengthened and geopolitical tensions eased. The domestic futures market saw significant movements, with MCX gold April derivatives dropping by over ₹2,000 (1.3%) to ₹1,56,001 per 10 grams. Silver March contracts also fell sharply, plunging by more than ₹5,500 (over 2%) to ₹2,57,100 per kilogram.
The recent volatility in gold and silver markets reflects cautious profit booking at higher levels, despite the medium- to long-term positive outlook for precious metals. Market analysts point out that fluctuations in the dollar index, geopolitical developments, and US macroeconomic indicators are key factors influencing precious metal prices.
The dollar index, which had dropped to 96.82 in the previous session, increased to 97.01 on Tuesday, making bullion slightly more expensive for international buyers. Market participants are closely watching the US Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decisions. According to Reuters, White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett indicated that job growth in the US might slow in the coming months due to slower labor force expansion and rising productivity, suggesting fewer rate hikes.
Investors are currently pricing in the possibility of at least two 25-basis-point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. The upcoming nonfarm payrolls report for January, scheduled for release on Wednesday, along with inflation data on Friday, are expected to provide further signals on the Fed’s monetary policy trajectory.
Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at IndusInd Securities, stated, “Markets are currently pricing in at least two rate cuts this year, supporting bullion prices. The focus is on the nonfarm payrolls report and inflation figures for further cues.” He also noted that geopolitical tensions, especially between the US and Iran, continue to underpin safe-haven demand, with Washington warning US-flagged vessels to stay away from Iranian waters.
Key Levels to Watch for Gold and Silver
According to Trivedi, MCX Gold April futures are expected to remain range-bound between ₹1,57,000 and ₹1,59,000 per 10 grams. Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvifinmart Commodity Research recommends buying gold around ₹1,56,600 and ₹1,55,000, with stop-loss levels below ₹1,54,000 for targets of ₹1,59,100 and ₹1,60,600. For silver, buying is suggested around ₹2,56,000 and ₹2,52,000, with stops below ₹2,47,700 and targets of ₹2,66,000 and ₹2,72,000.
Jain also highlighted support and resistance levels: gold has support at $5,024 and $4,970, with resistance at $5,122 and $5,164 per troy ounce. Silver’s support is at $78.80 and $76, while resistance stands at $84.40 and $88.
In the domestic market, Jain identified support for MCX gold at ₹1,56,600 and ₹1,54,800, with resistance at ₹1,59,100 and ₹1,60,600. Silver support levels are at ₹2,55,500 and ₹2,48,800, with resistance at ₹2,68,000 and ₹2,74,000.