In a surprising statement early April 1, President Donald Trump suggested that the ongoing conflict involving Iran could conclude within two weeks, even without a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump indicated that the war might end “within maybe two weeks,” signaling a potential disengagement from the fight and urging countries to “get their own oil” amid escalating energy concerns.
Analysts, however, warn that the path to normalcy in oil markets could take significantly longer. A Thomson Reuters report highlighted a minimum two to four-week lag before the impact of the conflict on oil flows is fully felt, meaning that the current disruptions could persist for weeks after any official end to hostilities.
Macquarie Group strategist Vikas Dwivedi explained that it may take an additional two weeks just to begin restoring oil production, as stored oil needs to be shipped and infrastructure repairs are carried out. He cautioned that repairs to damaged energy facilities could take anywhere from weeks to months, depending on the extent of damage. Some damage, particularly from drone strikes, could be repaired quickly, but major infrastructure repairs could span several months or even a year.
The timeline is further complicated by the need to clear mines and debris from attacked vessels. Iran has reportedly deployed mines in key shipping lanes, which are narrow and critical for oil transit. Clearing these mines is a dangerous and time-consuming process that could add delays to the resumption of normal shipping activities.
Shipping costs have skyrocketed amid the conflict. Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) saw charter rates surge above US$400,000 per day, with reports of one India-bound tanker paying as much as US$770,000 daily in early March. Experts note that these rates, along with fuel and port charges, could add an additional US$50,000 daily to shipping costs.
While President Trump’s optimistic timeline suggests an end to the war in two weeks, energy analysts caution that the full recovery of oil markets and global supply chains could take much longer, extending disruptions well into the coming months.
